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As the scale and enormity of the Maharashtra verdict sink in, pollsters have been left scratching their heads in apparent bewilderment: What really drove this groundswell of support for Mahayuti that few saw coming? To be sure, pre-poll Maharashtra did show some signs of the political winds blowing in favour of the ruling alliance, but none of these signs had anything to suggest the landslide that blew the MVA away on results day. As the dust slowly settles, here could be some of the real reasons why the electorate gave Congress & Co the go-by and flocked to BJP & Co. Counter consolidation Following Lok Sabha election losses, the BJP went back to the drawing board to review factors that contributed to the outcomes.
The findings showed that some of the losses were due to consolidated Muslim voting patterns. Analysis suggests the BJP made a concerted effort to consolidate Hindu votes, particularly in areas where they faced setbacks in the previous Lok Sabha elections due to Muslim vote consolidation. The party worked closely with the RSS and affiliated groups to achieve this.
This strategy was seemingly bolstered by demands from some Muslim clerics, which included a 10% quota and preferential treatment in police recruitment. Big bloc back in BJP fold The BJP also addressed the erosion of their Dalit vote bank, which they attributed, in part, to a Congress campaign that suggested reservation quotas were under threat. The party engaged with Dalit communities to counter this narrative.
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The party employed various tactics to secure the Dalit vote. Kiren Rijiju, the Minister of Minority Affairs and a Buddhist, was entrusted with engaging neo-Buddhists, who constitute a significant portion of the Dalit population. The Supreme Court's decision to approve the sub-categorisation of the Scheduled Caste quota also contributed to the splintering of the Dalit vote.
This further complicated the political landscape for this demographic. Adding to the complexity, the "MMM factor" (Muslims, Marathas, Mahars) that previously hindered the BJP in the Marathwada region had a less significant impact this election cycle. The Maratha math The Maratha vote, a significant voting bloc in the state, saw some interesting developments.
Jarange Patil, a prominent figure in the Maratha reservation movement, saw a decline in credibility. This coincided with the understanding among some Maratha voters that Eknath Shinde, leading the Mahayuti alliance, represented their best chance at securing the Chief Minister position. Several factors influenced Maratha voters in the recent elections.
Eknath Shinde, part of the Mahayuti alliance, was seen as a frontrunner for the Chief Minister position, impacting voters' choices. Further impacting the political landscape, a significant number of influential Maratha leaders from Western Maharashtra ran as candidates for Ajit Pawar's NCP faction. This, coupled with the BJP's own deep strength in savvy Maratha brains, created a complex political landscape for voters navigating Maratha representation.
Patil's unintentional gift The aggressive stance taken by Patil for Maratha reservation, and his criticism of the BJP, appeared to have pushed Other Backward Classes (OBCs) towards the Mahayuti. OBCs viewed the opposing MVA alliance as supportive of Patil. This perception contributed to a notable increase in OBC votes for the Mahayuti across all regions of Maharashtra.
This shift in OBC votes supplemented the fracturing of the Maratha vote, significantly impacting the election outcomes across various regions. Sops settle matters as revdis rule The BJP also benefitted from the performance of its leader in the state, Eknath Shinde. His social welfare initiatives, particularly the “Ladki Bahin” scheme offering financial assistance to women, resonated with voters.
A key factor in the Mahayuti's election victory was the public's perception of their focus on launching new projects. This contrasted with the view of the MVA government, which voters saw as canceling more projects than it initiated. This difference in perception proved to be a significant advantage in the election, particularly in a wealthy state with numerous urban areas.
Shinde's Ladki Bahin scheme, offering Rs 1,500 per month to women from low-income backgrounds, along with benefits targeting young voters and farmers, also contributed to the Mahayuti's success. However, the perception of the two governing bodies' approaches to projects played a crucial role in shaping voter opinion. Agri: Maha happy harvest for Mahayuti Improved agricultural incomes played a role.
While low farm revenues had hampered the Mahayuti in previous Lok Sabha elections, a subsequent rise in prices for agricultural products like onions, soybean and dairy created a more favorable environment for the BJP-led alliance in the assembly polls. Better prices for agricultural products played a key role in shifting voter sentiment. While the government's decision to lift the onion export ban came too late to impact the LS polls, the subsequent assembly elections saw farmers benefiting from better prices for soybeans and dairy products.
These cash payments, targeted primarily at women in rural areas, further bolstered Mahayuti's standing among the rural population. The combination of improved farm income and direct financial assistance appears to have effectively addressed the earlier discontent among rural voters, ultimately contributing to Mahayuti's resurgence in the assembly polls. Better cracking of coalition code The Mahayuti alliance partners displayed a more united front compared to the MVA alliance, according to an analysis of their pre-election behavior.
While the Mahayuti alliance did have some internal disagreements, they were less apparent than the frequent disputes within the MVA. The MVA partners, particularly UBT Sena's Sanjay Raut and Congress's Nana Patole, often publicly criticised each other. This caused delays in the MVA's seat-sharing arrangements and raised public doubts about their ability to work together effectively.
Thackeray sob story falls on deaf ears Uddhav Thackeray's party, UBT Sena, centered its election campaign on the idea that voters would support them because they felt Thackeray was treated unfairly by Shinde. This strategy proved unsuccessful. The election saw Hindu voters uniting behind a single party, helped by the RSS who promoted the BJP's Hindu nationalist message.
Thackeray's move away from the strong Hindu nationalist stance of his father, Balasaheb Thackeray, also hurt his campaign. His decision to withdraw support for the Waqf bill, after protests from Muslim groups, further benefited the BJP and Shinde's party. Article based on an analysis by Team TOI (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel ).
