2025 hurricane outlook: AccuWeather calls for up to 18 named storms

AccuWeather is predicting that 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be less active than 2024 — one of the most destructive on record — but at or above historical averages from 1990 to 2020. Forecasters there are calling for 13 to 18 named storms. Of those, the weather service is predicting seven to 10 will become hurricanes, with three to five strengthening into major hurricanes.

Three to six landfalls within the U.S. are likely.



“AccuWeather is forecasting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and direct impacts to the United States,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. Last year saw 18 named storms in the Atlantic Basin (the historical average is 14), 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes and five hurricane landfalls in the U.S.

(an unnamed tropical storm also made landfall in South Carolina). Factors impacting the coming season include the likely transition from La Niña to a neutral weather pattern. La Niñas historically cause lower-than-average wind shear over the area in the Atlantic, thus allowing storms to form more easily.

Warm water fuels hurricanes. Though water in the Atlantic is not quite as hot as it was last year, it is well above average for the time period and AccuWeather expects sea-surface temperatures to remain high throughout the season. Water temperatures around the globe have been increasing over the past 50 years, said AccuWeather senior meteorologist and climate expert Brett Anderson.

He pointed to the burning of fossil fuels ramping up the greenhouse effect, resulting in oceans storing more heat. “In just the past five years, we’ve seen water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf warm to levels never seen before in recorded history,” he said. “That extra energy can supercharge tropical storms and hurricanes.

” Anderson and DaSilva also expect warm water reaching deep into the ocean, meaning there will be high ocean heat content (OHC). “A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average,” said DaSilva. Based on 12 previous years that had similar atmospheric qualities, AccuWeather found landfall clusters in areas of the Gulf Coast in Texas, Louisiana and Florida, and on the east coast in North Carolina.

There are a few “what ifs.” The aforementioned neutral phase of El Niño/La Niña can trigger more tropical waves moving off of Africa. Those, in turn, can develop into tropical storms that cross the Atlantic.

But if the waves are exceptionally strong, then they can actually kick up more Saharan dust and dry air over the Atlantic, which kills hurricanes. It’s too early to tell where the Bermuda High will sit. The seasonal high pressure system acts as a steering boundary to storms.

If it shifts east, storms can arc around it and head north before reaching the U.S. If it drifts west, storms travel along its southern edge and can impact the east coast, or shoot into the Gulf.

And last year an Atlantic Niña occurred, cooling waters off the west coast of Africa in late summer, and causing a dip in storms. If that happens again, we can expect another mid- to late-summer lull, and an uptick in fall. Hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through the end of November.

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