2 weeks Ago By Sara Civian
We're one month into the 2024-25 NHL season, and you know what that means—the frauds are starting to show themselves as suspiciously hot starts cool down. How do we determine what's real and what's not? The analytics sample sizes are finally big enough to be useful if you want to go that route. You could also rely on the ole trusty eye test, and suffer through things like the Bruins taking negative four shots per period, or the Penguins scoring 300 goals in the first period just to purposely hurt their fans and allowing 301 by the third.
Why don't we assign one word for each team's first month as we take our first crack at separating the pretenders from the contenders? I was too high on the Ducks heading into this season for all the wrong reasons. I thought the high-octane youth movement was primed for a bigger step this year, but none of the youths have broken out significantly yet—and certainly not enough to outscore their defensive efforts. Meanwhile, goaltender Lukas Dostal has the best Goals Saved Above Expected among all NHL goalies with 11.
7. according to MoneyPuck.com .
This means the Ducks are giving him too many opportunities to make saves he shouldn't have to, but he's making those saves at a ridiculous clip. It's as simple as this for this year's Bruins: If the goalies are playing near-perfect, the team will probably win. If anything else is happening, the team is going to lose.
The best skaters, including David Pastrnak, need to start stepping up when it counts. The Sabres are hoping to snap their league-record 13-year playoff drought this season, but it looks like all they're doing is hoping, at 5-7-1 ( change after game ) with glaring issues. Even with Tage Thompson bouncing back and primed for a career year, the top six beyond the first line is barren without Jeff Skinner.
Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn in particular aren't just failing to score – the second line is accounting for far too many goals against with meager production. Meanwhile, special teams have been brutal all around. None of it bodes well for Buffalo's postseason hopes.
The Flames' hot start was as unexpected as it was fun, but what are we left with now that it's over? With the amount of whiplash and game-to-game variance the team has shown, it's really up to them to tell us who they are in November. They're still in a playoff spot, and they're still showing us good things like the emergence of Connor Zary, but they still need to convince us it won't slip away. If you were worried about the Canes' depth headed into this season due to significant roster turnover, fear not.
After the first month of the season, the Canes boast the best win percentage in the East. The offense is consistent, the defense looks great, and everything is once again fine in Raleighwood. Tyler Bertuzzi has four goals and 0 assists, whatever.
Ryan Donato has seven goals and nine points, whatever. Connor Bedard, you're doing just fine kid, keep it up. Forgive me, but in these trying times I simply can't conjure up a take for the takeless.
The Blackhawks are bad, some of their players aren't that bad, and we're all going to die one day. Folks, that 0-4 start was a close one. But it turns out that if your goalie is playing poorly, you can simply play your other one and see what happens.
Justus Annunen has played well enough in net to avoid a total crisis, and the team now hovers around a .500 record. The weird vibes from Colorado's dreadful start will linger for a bit, but all they can do is keep stringing wins together as we try to forget.
The Blue Jackets look significantly better than expected, even in their current, slumpy state. The regression has probably been inevitable, but it doesn't take much away from the solid start, or the sound underlying numbers that show the shot selection – particularly from Sean Monahan – has been on point. I'm harder on the best teams in the league because I'm thinking about them in terms of what they need to do to win the Cup right now.
The Stars are a perfect regular-season hockey team, with sound defense, an elite goaltender, and scoring depth for days. The problem? They need more impact scorers when going against the best of the best. They need to score more power-play goals, and they need to score more in general against teams like the Panthers.
If this Red Wings team was playing about 10 years ago, it would be perfect. Sadly, we live in reality, and Detroit's inability to sustain any real even-strength offensive zone pressure is partially an indictment of a less-than-modern roster. Lucas Raymond is leading the team in points and Patrick Kane is showing there's still some Showtime left.
But I worry about the blue line. Veterans Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot have Corsi ratings in the 30s and that won't get it done. Well, it's not like the Oilers ever claimed to be defensive juggernauts.
We know who they are, and that's a team that needs to – and usually does – score a million goals. You're never too worried about them, and just when you start to worry, Leon Draisaitl turns it up and Connor McDavid returns from injury. They'll probably figure it out.
The Panthers (9-3-1, 5 game win streak change after game ) are taking care of business per usual, and nothing shows that quite like their Finland-based sweep of the Stars, who are one of the best teams in the west. Sam Reinhart scored 58 goals last season, and this year he's on pace to go for 60 – even with Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk out of the lineup early on. That freshly signed $8.
6 million AAV extension is already aging well, as is Bill Zito's roster construction. I've criticized the Kings for a few vibeless, "good-enough" seasons because they've needed a stronger sense of direction. Among other enticing characters, Brandt Clarke has emerged, providing the type of defense and vibes we've needed from the Kings.
They're also getting goals from Alex Laferriere, who leads the team with eight . It's not just that the Minnesota Wild are winning consistently and having fun, it's the way they are doing it. Goaltending left much to be desired last season, and the steady improvement this season is encouraging for sustainability.
Kirill Kaprizov remains at the top of the league in scoring, and Matt Boldy is giving us the big moments we've craved from the Wild's stars. The Canadiens had some decent goaltending and decent vibes to start the season, but now it's business as usual at the bottom of the Atlantic Division. This is more-or-less where we thought they'd be at the beginning of the season, especially with that pre-season Patrik Laine injury.
Nothing to see here, folks. General Manager Barry Trotz was bold with a slew of major off-season moves in an attempt to really go for it. Even though the players haven't meshed well together quite yet, I respected it.
Now, Trotz is saying if they can't get it together he'll start a rebuild come this season's trade deadline. I'm all for the boldness in each direction. Imagine if your favorite team was gifted two early stat-padding games against the Buffalo Sabres while the rest of the league was still in preseason.
I kid, the Devils are genuinely good, and they've taken a step from last year's disappointment. Things are back on track with two shutouts against Vancouver and Edmonton, but there's still some work to do in tightening things up all around on this roster. I know you guys hate when I say mean things about the Islanders, but why is it my fault that they give us nothing nice to say? Unfortunately, I watch the games! I'm hard on them because I see the potential, like that third-period comeback win over the Penguins.
But completing a third-period comeback win against the Penguins is basically a playoff team checklist item this year. I am simply asking the Islanders to score a lot of goals and prevent a lot of goals in the same game at least one time. You watch this team play and you know it's built for a long, postseason run.
Igor Shesterkin has somehow invented a new level, Alexis Lafreniere is looking like the No. 1 overall pick the Rangers had hoped he'd be, and the team as a whole is elite on both ends of the ice. If they can find a way to re-ignite Mika Zibanejad, there's no stopping New York come April.
The Senators looked like they were heading towards disappointment once again, but they're showing us now there's still hope. Linus Ullmark's presence in net hasn't been perfect, but it's been visibly stabilizing for the younger-skewing roster and he's settling in. We should still keep our eyes on Ottawa this month.
It took precisely one month, but head coach John Tortorella has officially healthy scratched star rookie Matvei Michkov for the first time this season. The Flyers looked fun, with Michkov and the youngins infusing life into the power play, but early goaltending was too good to be true and now the team has gone completely cold. The Pittsburgh Penguins started the season hard to watch, continued to be hard to watch, and remain hard to watch.
Thank you for reading. OK, here's more. Bottom line, they're old and they lack top-end skill and talent outside of the ageless Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
The clock might be ticking on Mike Sullivan behind the bench and Kyle Dubas is going to have to figure out a way to turn their old assets into young pieces very soon. Ever since Mario Ferraro accurately called game against Utah, the San Jose Sharks are – dare I say – kind of a vibe? Of course, these are the ups and downs expected of a team expected to be horrible with a few great individual players. Now that Macklin Celebrini is back from injury, they've probably got a few more in them.
Enjoy this stretch of watchability, Sharks fans. The Kraken had a whopping three goals in a 6-3 loss to the Avalanche most recently, but before that, they scored one goal in three games (all losses). I don't know why they were saving up all of their offensive power to drop eight on the Habs, but a better goal-scoring strategy is needed.
There have been moments this season when the Blues – and especially Jordan Kyrou – have looked playoff bound. There have been almost as many moments where they've looked unprepared. With Philip Broberg and Robert Thomas injured, you can't really blame the Blues for the inconsistency.
But you want to see them string a decent streak together to inspire more confidence. The Lightning came out of the gates swinging with a new first line featuring Jake Guentzel, and Nikita Kucherov continues to put up historic numbers. But the team has been flailing a bit defensively as of late, and now Brayden Point is sidelined on a "one game at a time" basis, according to Jon Cooper.
The first half of the month was super encouraging for the Lightning, but now the next few weeks will be crucial to further establish that identity. It feels like everything is coming together at once for the Maple Leafs, who seem to have found a No. 1 goaltender in Anthony Stolarz.
They're finding new ways to win – aka not needing to score one million goals – and they're winning despite Auston Matthews' slow start and injury. Beating the Bruins in the regular season for the first time in eight tries is just icing on the cake. The 4-1-1 start was fun to watch, but even then it didn't look particularly sustainable.
There were some tough goals allowed, some fluke goals scored, and some home games won via vibes. The Hockey Club has come back down to Earth, and on this planet, they rank No. 20 in goals per game and sixth worst in goals against.
Still, they're only a few points out of a playoff position in the Central Division and could squeak back into the conversation at any time. To do that, they should stabilize their goaltending and defense – I realize this is tricky with two key defenders out. Welcome to the show, I guess.
The Canucks have been chaotic all season: Comeback wins, nearly lethal collapses, breath-holders and nail-biters. But through it all, they've never been bad. The chaos of the early season has given way to a bit more consistency.
It's great to see Brock Boeser picking up right where he left off after his great 2023-24, and it's great to see a stable goaltending situation with Kevin Lankinen entering the chat. Sure, there've been some slight problems along the way, but it's the Vancouver Canucks, what do you expect? Remember when y'all wouldn't stop complaining about the Golden Knights keeping Mark Stone on LTIR and reaping the playoff cap benefits in the process? I bet you'd prefer him on LTIR the next time he's in town to destroy your team. Vegas is off to a great start and watch out for Kelly McCrimmon to make a big move at the trade deadline to improve an already good team, because, as we know, that's what the Golden Knights do.
The Capitals' surprising hot start appears at least somewhat sustainable, and if you haven't conducted your own eye test on the matter yet, I urge you to tune in to fully understand why. There's not much variance in game-to-game competency. Tom Wilson started off with the goal-scoring we thought Alex Ovechkin would, now Ovechkin is exploding offensively on pace to crush Wayne Gretzky's goal-scoring record.
Jakob Chychrun and Pierre-Luc Dubois fit into the system well, and the younger players like Connor McMichael are stepping up. The best part? The goaltending hasn't even approached the best it could be yet. The Winnipeg Jets woke up one day about halfway through their 8-0-0 league-best start to the season and decided even that wasn't good enough.
So on top of showcasing the most consistent goaltender in the league in Connor Hellebuyck each night, they decided to start scoring a million goals, too. They're at the top of the West with plenty of legroom, their 4.77 goals per game are first in the league, and their 2.
31 goals against rank second. Just a legendary run to start the season all around for Winnipeg..
